Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 1.806259 1.905758 2.009691 2.126690 2.255138 2.392321 2.550527
2025-10-05 1.681732 1.823474 1.978371 2.161482 2.373718 2.614090 2.910014
2025-10-12 1.604102 1.771759 1.960755 2.192067 2.471066 2.801506 3.230037
2025-10-19 1.543632 1.730120 1.945636 2.217023 2.555518 2.972283 3.538648
2025-10-26 1.478055 1.675715 1.908672 2.208820 2.593654 3.083237 3.776218
2025-11-02 1.421243 1.627097 1.873832 2.198138 2.624242 3.182660 4.003681
2025-11-09 1.363431 1.573412 1.828607 2.169663 2.627159 3.242292 4.177679
2025-11-16 1.311367 1.523885 1.785317 2.139900 2.624481 3.291485 4.338200
2025-11-23 1.277500 1.495276 1.766593 2.140350 2.661406 3.397126 4.592873
2025-11-30 1.253387 1.477643 1.760603 2.156599 2.720070 3.537197 4.916210
2025-12-07 1.213331 1.437703 1.723371 2.127698 2.711626 3.575227 5.074641
2025-12-14 1.171676 1.394129 1.679459 2.087102 2.683163 3.579493 5.174272
2025-12-21 1.133336 1.354268 1.639811 2.051725 2.661880 3.595667 5.301371
2025-12-28 1.121911 1.349461 1.647048 2.082882 2.741827 3.779155 5.757839
2026-01-04 1.110497 1.344027 1.652859 2.111753 2.819470 3.965090 6.248829
2026-01-11 1.097970 1.336487 1.655197 2.135236 2.889655 4.144293 6.757818
2026-01-18 1.075900 1.315162 1.637328 2.127518 2.908942 4.235716 7.097115
2026-01-25 1.054348 1.293842 1.618618 2.117464 2.923415 4.319148 7.432977
2026-02-01 1.028673 1.266092 1.589808 2.090656 2.908303 4.346459 7.643349
2026-02-08 1.003889 1.238931 1.560998 2.062622 2.889430 4.364894 7.835653
2026-02-15 0.988950 1.225078 1.550871 2.063047 2.918741 4.477607 8.285025
2026-02-22 0.979135 1.218087 1.550369 2.078353 2.974371 4.646765 8.921314
2026-03-01 0.957456 1.193787 1.523787 2.051125 2.953577 4.660275 9.133979